forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA’s regional agencies are asked about their … expectations of future labor market developments. We generate an aggregate unemployment leading indicator that exploits serial …

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country fixed effects are added to panel … estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries - Austria; Belgium …; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Malta; Netherlands; Poland; Portugal; Romania; Slovakia; Slovenia; Spain; Sweden; Turkey and the UK …

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to … panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected … just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead. We do so using individuals …