We estimate a dynamic asset pricing model characterized by heterogeneous boundedly rational agents. The fundamental value of the risky asset is publicly available to all agents, but they have different beliefs about the persistence of deviations of stock prices from the fundamental benchmark. An...

The use of various moving average (MA) rules remains popular with financial market practitioners. These rules have recently become the focus of a number empirical studies, but there have been very few studies of financial market models where some agents employ technical trading rules of the type...

This short paper is a comment on ``Testing for Nonlinear Structure and Chaos in Economic Time Series'' by Catherine Kyrtsou and Apostolos Serletis. We summarize their main results and discuss some of their conclusions concerning the role of outliers and noisy chaos. In particular, we include...

This paper formalizes the idea that more hedging instruments may destabilize markets when traders are heterogeneous and adapt their behavior according to experience based reinforcement learning. We investigate three different economic settings, a simple mean-variance asset pricing model, a...

A large set of 5350 trend following technica! trading rules is applied to LIFFEand CSCE cocoa futures prices, and tothe Pound-Dollar exchange rate, in the period 1983:1-1997:6. We find that 72% ofthe trading rules generatespositive profits, even when correcting for transaction and borrowing...

Price fluctuations under adaptive learning in renewable resourcemarkets such as fisheries are examined. Optimal fisherymanagement with logistic fish pOpUlation growth implies a backward-bending, discounted supply curve for bioeconomicequilibrium sustained yield. Higher discount rates bend...

A simple asset pricing model with two types of adaptively learning traders,fundamentalists and technical analysts, is studied. Fractions of these tradertypes, which are both boundedly rational, change over time according toevolutionary learning, with technical analysts conditioning their...