In our last report to this committee, we noted that we had changed our fore-casting methodology, and were updating our data set each month to reflect the data that existed at that time, and then constructed truly ex-ante forecasts based on these data sets. Our analysis of the behavior of...

Since the last meeting of this committee, we have been experimenting with a different presentation of our forecasts of the MI - Adjusted Monetary Base Multiplier. In the past we have always constructed forecasts directly from the forecasts of the various component ratios, which come out of the...

During recent months the behavior of the various monetary aggregates in the United States has been the subject of almost continuous commentary. The most frequent conclusion is that the observed behavior has been dominated by a number ofunique events. First it was alleged that the behavior of M1...

Food Stamps represent nearly $11 billion of personal income in the United States. The coupons that are issued to represent the purchasing power available to recipients are also reserves for the commercial banking system.This study asks how closely these coupons are substitutable for what is...

An important factor that helps distinquish between alternative balance of payments theories is the assumed causal relationship between the domestic credit and reserve components of a country's monetary base. This paper reports test results of this causal relationship in Austrailia, Belgium,...