In our last report to this committee, we noted that we had changed our fore-casting methodology, and were updating our data set each month to reflect the data that existed at that time, and then constructed truly ex-ante forecasts based on these data sets. Our analysis of the behavior of...

Since the last meeting of this committee, we have been experimenting with a different presentation of our forecasts of the MI - Adjusted Monetary Base Multiplier. In the past we have always constructed forecasts directly from the forecasts of the various component ratios, which come out of the...

During recent months the behavior of the various monetary aggregates in the United States has been the subject of almost continuous commentary. The most frequent conclusion is that the observed behavior has been dominated by a number ofunique events. First it was alleged that the behavior of M1...