In this paper, we exploit CDS quotes for contracts denominated in different currencies and with different default clauses to estimate the risk of a breakup of the Eurozone and the propagation of breakup and default risks. In a period including the large Covid-19 shock, we find that the risk of a...

We develop a model of debt sustainability analysis with optimal financing decisions in the presence of macroeconomic, financial and fiscal uncertainty. We define a coherent measure of refinancing risk, and trade off the risks of debt stock and flow dynamics, subject to debt sustainability...

Sovereign states issue fixed and floating securities to fund their public debt. The value of such portfolios strongly depends on the fluctuations of the term structure of interest rates. This is a typical example of planning under uncertainty, where decisions has to be drawn on the base of the...

We incorporate monetary policy into a model of stochastic debt sustainability analysis and evaluate the impact of unconventional policies on sovereign debt dynamics. The model optimizes debt financing to trade off financing cost with refinancing risk. We show that the ECB pandemic...

The International Organisation of Supreme Audit Institutions, cognisant of the complexity of sovereign debt issues, suggests that sufficient technical knowledge is essential in undertaking an audit. Quality public debt management audits require an understanding of the uncertain macroeconomy,...

We adapt to the Japanese case a model of stochastic debt sustainability within a monetary policymaking framework. The model incorporates the effects of unconventional monetary policy and its potential unwinding on sovereign debt dynamics. A scenario tree represents stochastic and correlated...

The shift from defined benefit (DB) to defined contribution (DC) is pervasive among pension funds, due to demographic changes and macroeconomic pressures. In DB all risks are borne by the provider, while in plain vanilla DC all risks are borne by the beneficiary. For DC to provide income...

We study the problem of asset and liability management of participating insurance policies with guarantees. We develop a scenario optimization model for integrative asset and liability management, analyze the tradeoffs in structuring such policies, and study alternative choices in funding them....

Insurers increasingly offer policies that converge with the products of the capital markets, and they face a need for integrative asset and liability management strategies. In this paper we show that an integrative approach -- based on scenario optimization modeling -- adds value to the risk...