We examine how prices in interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets adjust to the new information contained in scheduled macroeconomic news releases in the very short run. Using 10-second returns and tick-by-tick data, we find that prices adjust in a series of numerous small, but rapid,...

This paper estimates how the shape of the implied volatility smile and the size of the variance risk premium relate to parameters of GARCH-type time-series models measuring how conditional volatility responds to return shocks. Markets in which return shocks lead to large increases in conditional...

Despite the fact that they are heavily traded, discussed in every derivatives text, and necessary to aligning implied volatilities with volatility expectations, volatility trades such as straddles, strangles, and option/asset combinations have received scant attention in the finance research...

Options researchers have argued that by averaging together implied standard deviations, or ISDs, calculated from several options with the same expiry but different strikes, the noise in individual ISDs can be reduced, yielding a better measure of the market's volatility expectation. Various...

By Jensen's inequality, a model's forecasts of the variance and standard deviation of returns cannot both be unbiased. This study explores the bias in GARCH type model forecasts of the standard deviation of returns, which we argue is the more appropriate volatility measure for most financial...

The forecasting ability of the most popular volatility forecasting models is examined and an alternative model developed. Existing models are compared in terms of four attributes: (1) the relative weighting of recent versus older observations, (2) the estimation criterion, (3) the trade‐off in...

Calls of in-the-money convertible bonds appear to be consistent with the yield advantage, after-tax-cash-flow and safety-premium hypotheses. However, this study does not find any support for the signaling hypothesis or for the often-cited desire on the part of management to extinguish the...