In this paper we examine whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy in the short run. Our analyses primarily concern the growth rates of real GDP but we also evaluate forecasts of other variables such as unemployment, price and wage inflation,...

A new approach is proposed for estimating potential output and the NAIRU. Identification is achieved using Okun's law and a Phillips curve. The performance of the methodology is exemplified using data from Canada, the UK, and the US.

It has been suggested that interest-rate smoothing may be partly explained by an omitted variable that relates to conditions in financial markets. We propose an alternative interpretation that suggests that it relates to measurement errors in the output gap