This paper reconsiders empirical evidence on relationships among money, income, nominal prices, and wheat prices. Error correction and directed acyclic graphs are used to study both lagged and contemporaneous relations in late 19th and early 20th century U.S. data. We summarize evidence...

In this paper, we study the U.S. aggregate business failures during 1980- 2004 in relation to four macroeconomic variables: aggregate corporate profits, the producer price index, the interest rate, and stock market performance. We argue that aggregate business failures should not be treated as a...

Investigation into the relations between market fundamentals and US natural gas prices is carried out in the regime-switching framework. To test the hypothesis that US natural gas market may switch between two states of market: bullish market and bearish market, a 2-state regime-switching model...

In this study, we apply directed acyclic graphs and search algorithm designed for time series with non-Gaussian distribution to obtain causal structure of innovations from an error correction model. The structure of interdependencies among six international stock markets is investigated. The...

Replaced with revised version of paper 02/22/11.

We describe a means of rejecting a null hypothesis concerning observed, but not deliberately manipulated, variables of the form H0: A -/- B in favor of an alternative hypothesis HA: A -- B, even given the possibility of causally related unobserved variables. Rejection of such an H0 relies on the...

Monthly vector autoregressions of corn, farm broiler, and retail broiler prices were estimated for 1956:1-1968:12 (early period) and 1973:1-1985:11 (recent period), and then validated 36 months beyond each sample. Statistically significant evidence suggests that the dynamic manner in which corn...

This article offers a comparison of short-term forecasting ability of five demand systems with an application to U.S. meat consumption. Four static demand systems (AIDS, Rotterdam, AIM, and DGM) and a dynamic Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) are considered. We tested the equality of mean...