In the U.S., over 1873-2014, an increase in bank credit is associated with a lower risk of a financial crisis in the near future. Bank credit expansion predicts lower excess returns and volatility for the aggregate stock market, and this predictive relation varies in the cross-section and is...

Real, total consumption growth deviations from normal stock market wealth effects lead economic growth in advanced economies in the Americas, in Europe and in AustralAsia, as shown by Breeden (2013). Consumers' expenditures reflect their information about employment opportunities and future real...

I first show that taking moving averages of the term spread, the dividend yield, and the Shiller’s CAPE, significantly increases their ability to predict one month and 12-month forward equity market excess returns, and the state of the business cycle. Dividend yield, CAPE and term spread are...

There are concerns that climate-related physical and political risks are not yet properly reflected in asset prices. To address these concerns, we develop a dynamic asset pricing framework with rare disasters related to climate change. The novelty of this paper lies in linking carbon emissions...

Several papers decompose stock returns into cash flow and discount rate news to study equity market fluctuations. This paper develops and explores an alternative decomposition for stock returns based on the idea that equity volatility must come from variation in the present value of short- and...

We study the economic sources of stock-bond return comovement and its time variation using a dynamic factor model. We identify the economic factors employing structural and non-structural vector autoregressive models for economic state variables such as interest rates, (expected) inflation,...

The first three sections illustrate how the British establishment viewed gilts mispricing around 1870, and how the markets reacted to a government debt conversion proposal of that year. This is followed by a section on general government policy towards investors in national debt instruments....

British government bonds formed the deepest, most liquid, and most transparent financial market of the 19th century. This paper shows that those bonds had long periods, extending over decades, of anomalous behavior, in which Consols, the largest and best known of these instruments, were...

Previously unknown basic statistics are obtained about the operations of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) in early Victorian times. Integration of data from the Bank of England Archive with price reports, press coverage, and other sources produces estimates for volume of transactions,...