Football fans worldwide anticipate the 2018 FIFAWorld Cup that will take place in Russia from 14 June to 15 July 2018. 32 of the best teams from 5 confederations compete to determine the new World Champion. Using a consensus model based on quoted odds from 26 bookmakers and betting exchanges a...

Low visibility conditions enforce special procedures that reduce the operational flight capacity at airports. Accurate and probabilistic forecasts of these capacity-reducing lowvisibility procedure (lvp) states help the air traffic management to optimize flight planning and regulation. In this...

A method to predict lightning by postprocessing numerical weather prediction (NWP) output is developed for the region of the European Eastern Alps. Cloud-to-ground-flashes - detected by the ground-based ALDIS network - are counted on the 18x18 km2 grid of the 51-member NWP ensemble of the...

Abstract Reproducibility of economic research has attracted considerable attention in recent years. So far, the discussion has focused mainly on reproducibility of empirical analyses. This paper addresses a further aspect of reproducibility, the reproducibility of computational experiments. More...

The classical approach to testing for structural change employs retrospective tests using a historical data set of a given length. Here we consider a wide array of fluctuation-type tests in a monitoring situation - given a history period for which a regression relationship is known to be stable,...

Autoren-Abstract: This paper introduces ideas and methods for testing for structural change in linear regression models and presents how these have been realized in an R package called strucchange. It features tests from the generalized fluctuation test framework as well as from the F test (Chow...

Firstly rather accurate approximations to the p value functions of the common Standard CUSUM test and the OLS-based CUSUM test for structural change are derived...

Rasch mixture models can be a useful tool when checking the assumption of measurement invariance for a single Rasch model. They provide advantages compared to manifest DIF tests when the DIF groups are only weakly correlated with the manifest covariates available. Unlike in single Rasch models,...

Extended logistic regression is a recent ensemble calibration method that extends logistic regression to provide full continuous probability distribution forecasts. It assumes conditional logistic distributions for the (transformed) predictand and fits these using selected predictand category...

The R package partykit provides a flexible toolkit for learning, representing, summarizing, and visualizing a wide range of tree-structured regression and classification models. The functionality encompasses: (a) basic infrastructure for representing trees (inferred by any algorithm) so that...