The ex-ante evaluation of policies using structural econometric models is based on estimated parameters as a stand-in for the truth. This practice ignores uncertainty in the counterfactual policy predictions of the model. We develop a generic approach that deals with parametric uncertainty using...

What are the macroeconomic prospects for South Africa until the new millennium? Two methods of macroeconomic modelling, associated with the World Bank and IMF, are used here to generate three scenarios, based on moderately optimistic projections. The methodology used can be applied to other...

Die Arbeitsmarktpolitik benötigt für die Gestaltung der Zukunft wissenschaftlich begründete Vorhersagen und Projektionen über mögliche Entwicklungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt. Dieses Buch enthält eine ausführliche Dokumentation des im IAB verwendeten makroökonomischen IAB/INFORGE-Modells...

In this paper, we propose a novel approach for the ex-ante assessment of tax reforms accounting for second-round effects, i.e. the dynamic scoring of tax reforms. We combine a microsimulation model for selected European countries with VAR estimates of macro responses and, exploiting a unique...

Im Rahmen eines Forschungsvorhabens für das BMWK hat die GWS zusammen mit Prognos die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen berechnet. Die direkten Wirkungen der Maßnahmen im Energiebereich sind in bottom-up Modellen der Prognos AG ermittelt worden. Die...

This paper describes a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the Philippine economy. The model consists of sectors of private consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and labor. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral equations. The...

This paper describes a quarterly macroeconometric model of the economy of People's Republic of China. The model comprises household consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and employment blocks. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral...

Several contributions have recently reconsidered the role of the time to build assumption in explaining some relevant stylized facts. In this paper, the similarities and differences which may emerge when the time to build structure of capital is introduced in a continuous or discrete time...

This paper presents a new quarterly macroeconometric model of the Belgian economy. It is intended to contribute to existing analytical work covering the specific transmission mechanisms of the euro area monetary policy in the Belgian economy. It also contributes to the forecast exercises and to...