This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition...

Under a monetary dominant (MD) regime, the primary surplus adjusts to limit debt growth, permitting monetary policy to be conducted independently of fiscal financing requirements. In Brazil, some evidence favors an MD regime for 1995–97, but not for the decade of the 1990s as a whole. While...

This paper uses Engel curves to estimate real income growth in Brazil. The estimated per capita household real income growth in metropolitan areas during 1987-2002 is about 41⁄2 percent per year, well above the ""headline"" growth of 11⁄2 percent obtained by deflating nominal incomes by the...

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using ""fan charts."" These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...

Six Latin American countries have levied taxes on withdrawals from bank accounts, which have been viewed as a convenient tax handle during a difficult fiscal period. The paper reviews the arguments for and against this type of taxation, describes the taxes, and surveys their revenue performance...

This paper argues that the IMF''s traditional monetary conditionality-a ceiling on net domestic assets of the central bank and a floor on its net international reserves-should be adapted in IMF-supported adjustment programs with countries which have a framework of explicit inflation targets for...

This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a...

This paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to analyze the macroeconomic and redistributive effects of replacing turnover and financial transaction taxes in Brazil by a consumption tax. In order to approximate Brazil''s compliance with its fiscal adjustment targets, the...

This paper highlights that real interest rates in Brazil have declined substantially over time, but are still well above the average of emerging market inflation targeting regimes. The adoption of an inflation-targeting regime and better economic fundamentals (reduction in inflation volatility...

This paper estimates the effectiveness of capital controls in response to inflow surges in Brazil, Colombia, Korea, and Thailand in the 2000s. Controls are generally associated with a decrease in inflows and a lengthening of maturities, but the relationship is not statistically significant in...