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In this paper we propose a new real-time forecasting model for euro area GDP growth, D€STINY, which attempts to bridge the existing gap in the literature between large- and small-scale dynamic factor models. By adopting a disaggregated modelling approach, D€STINY uses most of the information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071333
This paper derives forecasts for euro area real GDP growth based on a bottom up approach from the production side. That is, GDP is forecast via the forecasts of value added across the different branches of activity, which is quite new in the literature. Linear regression models in the form of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012768380
This paper poses the following question: what would euro area GDP per capita have been, had the monetary union not been launched? To this end we use the synthetic control methodology. We find that the euro did not bring the expected jump to a permanent higher growth path. During the early years...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013012109
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Can fixed exchange rate regimes cause output divergence among member states? We show that such divergence is a long-run equilibrium characteristic of a two-region model with fixed exchange rates, heterogeneous labor markets, and endogenous growth. Under flexible exchange rates, monetary policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013186796
-19 outbreak for GDP growth and inflation of the Eurozone countries. We find that business cycles had been diverging since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210991
This paper shows that newspaper articles contain timely economic signals that can materially improve nowcasts of real GDP growth for the euro area. Our text data is drawn from fifteen popular European newspapers, that collectively represent the four largest Euro area economies, and are machine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313002
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Eurozone countries. Despite extensive research, scientists have not yet found a clear answer as to whether economic growth and … indicators on GDP growth in 19 countries of the Eurozone for years 2000-2016. Based on the results, we cannot yet state … explicitly that economic growth in the Eurozone countries has been decoupled from climate change mitigation; however, green …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012264509