Forecasters experienced considerable difficulty in recognizing rising inflation and predicting its intensity in 1972-82. Possible explanations discussed are: 1) unpredictable supply shocks, 2) excessive attention to nonmonetary developments, and 3) actual money growth overshooting its targeted...

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Anecdotal evidence has it that the 1990-91 downturn was a predominantly white-collar, or middle management, recession. The data, however, show that the recession affected virtually all occupational groups. Moreover, by standards of past recessions, the 1990-91 downturn was relatively mild. It is...

Many observers contend that the U.S. savings rate has declined in recent years and that it lags behind the savings rates of our trading partners. This article surveys different methods of measuring savings (and problems with these methods) and finds that U.S. saving may not be as low as is...

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Female labor force participation rates have been rising rapidly since 1950 while male participation rates (especially for males 55 years and older) have been falling over much of that time. Analysis of participation rates also indicates (1) that the Reagan administration’s reductions in...

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Is the South rebelling again—this time against one of the tenets of economic theory? Neoclassical economic theory predicts that wage differentials between regions will disappear with time as workers move from low-wage areas to high-wage areas. However, in the seventies people tended to migrate...

The decline of the U.S. saving rate during the 1980s and its potential impact on future economic growth has been the subject of considerable concern. The National Income Accounts (NIA) measures of saving are the empirical basis for the concern. However, the economics literature has soundly...

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