This paper revisits the relation between growth and volatility in disaggregated data. Across countries, the link is confirmed to be significantly negative, but the paper shows that across sectors, the relation becomes positive. This reversal has a natural interpretation. The macroeconomic...

I investigate the determinants of business cycles synchronization across regions. I use both international and intranational data to evaluate the linkages between trade in goods, trade in financial assets, specialization and business cycles synchronization in the context of a system of...

I revisit the relationship between growth and volatility in two different disaggregated data sets. I confirm that growth and volatility are negatively related across countries, but show that across sectors, the relation is the opposite. This phenomenon, sometimes called "Simpson's fallacy", has...

We propose a new measure of high order trade, labeled HOT, based on the fraction of a sector’s downstream uses that cross a border. Because it decomposes gross output, HOT evaluates a sector’s exposure to foreign shocks abstracting altogether from observed direct trade, which we exploit to...

We show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the PPP puzzle. We prove that established time series and panel methods substantially exaggerate the persistence of real exchange rates because of heterogeneity in the dynamics of disaggregated relative prices. When...

In most macroeconomic models, the substitutability between domestic and foreign goods is calibrated using aggregated data. This imposes homogeneous elasticities across goods, and the calibration is only valid under this assumption. If elasticities are heterogeneous, the aggregate...

We propose a data-based approximation of the effects of trade sanctions. We validate the approximation by comparing it with exact responses simulated from a canonical multi-country multi-sector model. The approximation is palatable for a broad range of elasticities of substitution, except for...

We show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the PPP puzzle. We prove that the aggregate real exchange rate is persistent because its components have heterogeneous dynamics, that established time series and panel methods fail to control for. When heterogeneity is taken...

We document that the deregulation of bank branching restrictions in the United States triggered a reallocation across sectors, with end effects on state-level volatility. The change cannot be explained simply by shifts in sector-level returns and volatility. A reallocation effect is at play,...

We document that the deregulation of bank branching restrictions in the United States triggered a reallocation across sectors, with end effects on state-level volatility. This change in state-level volatility cannot be explained simply by shifts in sector-level returns and volatility. A...