Recent empirical studies suggest a downward sloping term structure of Sharpe ratios. We present a theoretical framework in continuous time that can cope with such a non-flat forward curve of risk prices. The approach departs from an arbitrage-free and incomplete market setting when different...

We characterize the discrete-time arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel term structure model, prove the uniqueness of the solution for model identification, make specification analysis on its canonical form, and detail the MCMC estimation method with a fast and reliable prior extraction step. Using the...

The foreign exchange market efficiency hypothesis is the proposition that prices fully reflect information available to market participants, i.e. hedged interest-arbitrageurs and speculators, and there are no opportunities for the hedgers or the speculators to make super-normal profits, i.e....

This chapter reviews some of the academic literature that links nominal and real term structures with the macroeconomy. The main conclusion is that none of our models is consistent with basic properties of nominal yields. It is difficult to explain the average shape of the nominal yield curve,...

This article discusses various challenges in the specification and implementation of \\"macro-finance\\" models in which macroeconomic variables and term structure variables are modeled together in a no-arbitrage framework. The author classifies macro-finance models into pure latent-factor...

A large part of the term structure literature interprets the first underlying factors as a level factor, a slope factor, and a curvature factor. In this paper we consider factor models interpretable as a level factor model, a level and a slope factor model, respectively. We prove that such...