I construct an estimable statistic that predicts whether a financial innovation will spread. The approach embeds the multi-host SIR model from epidemiology within a financial model of correlated securities trade; and takes advantage of the related predictive tools from mathematical epidemiology,...

"The global financial crisis saw many Eurozone countries bearing excessive public debt. This led the government bond yields of some peripheral countries to rise sharply, resulting in the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis. The debt crisis is characterized by its immediate spread from...