Arbitrage normally ensures that covered interest parity (CIP) holds. Until recently, excess profits, if any, were documented to last merely seconds and reach a few pips. Instead, this paper finds that following the Lehman bankruptcy, these were large, persisted for months and involved strategies...

Loose financial conditions forecast high output growth and low output volatility up to six quarters into the future, generating time-varying downside risk to the output gap, which we measure by GDP-at-Risk (GaR). This finding is robust across countries, conditioning variables, and time periods....

The impact of monetary policy in large advanced countries on emerging market economies�dubbed spillovers�is hotly debated in global and national policy circles. When the U.S. resorted to unconventional monetary policy, spillovers on asset prices and capital flows were significant, though...

Las políticas monetarias acomodaticias de las economías avanzadas han estimulado la entrada de capitales en los mercados emergentes desde la crisis financiera internacional. En un episodio que comenzó en mayo de 2013, cuando la Reserva Federal mencionó públicamente los planes de repliegue...

Usando datos a nivel de empresa correspondientes a aproximadamente 1.000 bancos e instituciones financieras no bancarias en 22 paises en los ultimos 15 anos, estudiamos el impacto de la aplicacion prolongada de una politica monetaria expansiva en la conducta relacionada con la toma de riesgos....

A new wave of technological innovations, often called 'fintech,' is accelerating change in the financial sector. What impact might fintech have on financial services, and how should regulation respond? This paper sets out an economic framework for thinking through the channels by which fintech...

Digitalization is reshaping economic activity, shrinking the role of cash, and spurring new digital forms of money. Central banks have been pondering wheter and how to adapt. One possibility is central bank digital currency (CBDC)-- a widely accessible digital form of fiat money that could be...

This paper marks the launch of a new IMF series, Fintech Notes. Building on years of IMF staff work, it will explore pressing topics in the digital economy and be issued periodically. The series will carry work by IMF staff and will seek to provide insight into the intersection of technology and...

The proposed SDN would take stock of the current debate on the shape that monetary policy should take after the crisis. It revisits the pros and cons of expanding the objectives of monetary policy, the merits of turning unconventional policies into conventional ones, how to make monetary policy...

The proposed SDN would take stock of the current debate on the shape that monetary policy should take after the crisis. It revisits the pros and cons of expanding the objectives of monetary policy, the merits of turning unconventional policies into conventional ones, how to make monetary policy...