that the shape of the loss function varies across countries. The loss function becomes more asymmetric as the forecast …

Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA … informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for … improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of …

environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …