structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the real output process in Germany can be detected. We report evidence … that output volatility has declined in Germany. Yet, this decline in output volatility is not as clear-cut as it is in the …Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and …

Empirical evidence suggests a sharp volatility decline of the growth in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the mid …-1980s. Using Bayesian methods, we analyze whether a volatility reduction can also be detected for the German GDP. Since … statistical inference for volatility processes critically depends on the specification of the conditional mean we assume for our …

Anwendung auf die Verhältnisse in Deutschland nachvollzogen. Zahlreiche Übersichten mit Zahlenbeispielen erläutern die … Anwendung auf die Verha¨ltnisse in Deutschland nachvollzogen. Zahlreiche Übersichten mit Zahlenbeispielen erla¨utern die …

We compared forecasts of stock market volatility based on real-time and revised macroeconomic data. To this end, we … used a new dataset on monthly real-time macroeconomic variables for Germany. The dataset covers the period 1994-2005. We … used a statistical, a utility-based, and an options-based criterion to evaluate volatility forecasts. Our main result is …

Does time-varying business volatility affect the price setting of firms and thus the transmission of monetary policy … Climate Survey the impact of idiosyncratic volatility on the price setting behavior of firms. In a second step, we use a … calibrated New Keynesian business cycle model to gauge the effects of time-varying volatility on the transmission of monetary …

In this paper, a survey on theoretically expected and empirically proved impacts of exchange rate volatility is given …. With regard to the West German unemployment, the effects of volatility are empirically analysed using three different … volatility measures and four country groups. In autoregressive models, a significant disturbing impact of volatility can be found …