Frontmatter -- Contents -- Figures and Tables -- Preface to the Third Edition -- Preface to the Second Edition, 2005 -- Preface to the First Edition, 2000 -- Acknowledgments -- One. The Stock Market in Historical Perspective -- Two. The Bond Market in Historical Perspective -- Three. The Real...

Er hat die Technologieblase vorhergesagt und vor der Immobilienblase warnte er ebenfalls frühzeitig. Nun analysiert Wirtschafts-Nobelpreisträger Robert Shiller die aktuelle Situation an den Finanzmärkten - und warnt erneut. Mit seiner Theorie des "Irrationalen Überschwangs" zeigt...

In minority games, players in a group must decide at each round which of two available options to choose, knowing that only subjects who picked the minority option obtain a positive reward. Previous experiments on the minority and similar congestion games have shown that players interacting...

Standard economic models based on rational expectations and homogeneity have problems explaining the complex and volatile nature of financial markets. Recently, boundedly rational and heterogeneous agent models have been developed and simulated returns are found to exhibit various stylized...

We estimate nonparametric learning rules using data from dynamic two-armed bandit (probabilistic reversal learning) experiments, supplemented with auxiliary eye-movement measures of subjects' beliefs. We apply recent econometric developments in the estimation of dynamic models. The direct...

How do people learn? We assess, in a distribution-free manner, subjects' learning and choice rules in dynamic two-armed bandit (probabilistic reversal learning) experiments. To aid in identification and estimation, we use auxiliary measures of subjects' beliefs, in the form of their...