Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to re‐examine the long‐run co‐movement and causal relationship between GDP and social security expenditures. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses panel data unit root tests and panel cointegration tests, as well as estimation techniques...

Origins of the official retirement age, current trends and policies in other countries

This paper presents estimates of the part-time wage effect. It also shows that failure to account for the part-time wage effect leads to a downward biased estimate of labor supply elasticities of interest. Using three different datasets, we show that both work hours and wages drop sharply at...

This study uses a new data set that contains the Social Security earnings histories of parents and children in the 1984 Survey of Income and Program Participation, to measure the intergenerational elasticity in earnings in the United States. Earlier studies that found an intergenerational...

Changes in the demographic structure of the U.S. population will affect many aspects of the US economy as we move into the next century. Concerns about the impact of an aging population on savings and interest rates, the financing of government spending programs for the elderly, and the...

This study investigates the determinants of applications for US disability benefits between 1986 and 1993 using a semiparametric discrete factor procedure. Approximating a dynamic optimization model, the estimation carefully accounts for a variety of potential biases that weren’t addressed in...

In his third social survey of York carried out in 1950, Seebohm Rowntree reported a steep decline since 1936 of the percentage of households in poverty. He attributed the bulk of this decline to government welfare reforms enacted during and after the War. Some observers have been uneasy about...

In this paper we consider the design and implementation of a pay-as-you-go social insurance system as a problem in political economy. We consider whether a society of forward looking rational economic agents would implement a system in which the level of benefits can depend on the relative...