law with a focus on the dynamic part of the relationship. We find that the negative relationship between unemployment and … misspecification of the short run unemployment-output relationship. A mixed lag structure indirectly controls for missing explanatory …

business cycle. Second, a shock that moves the land price is capable of generating large volatility in unemployment. Our … facts observed in the data. First, the land price and the unemployment rate tend to move in opposite directions over the … estimation indicates that a 10 percent drop in the land price leads to a 0.34 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate …

1851-2013 by estimating a multivariate ARFIMA-FIGARCH model (with the unemployment rate and inflation as explanatory … volatility (d = 0.80) is also confirmed. …

counterfactual quantity of interest. We apply the Bayesian counterfactual analysis to examine the sources of the volatility reduction … unemployment rate, we find strong statistical support for the idea that a counterfactual change in the size of structural shocks … alone, with no corresponding change in propagation, would have produced the same overall volatility reduction that actually …