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This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilisation policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012316605
This paper presents a continuous-time model of sovereign debt. In it, a relatively impatient sovereign government's hidden type switches back and forth between a commitment type, which cannot default, and an optimizing type, which can default at any time, and assume outside lenders have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453038
This paper investigates the transmission of uncertainty about the state of government finances on economic activity. I first employ a data-rich approach to extract a novel proxy that captures uncertainty surrounding the public finances of the Spanish economy, to which I refer as sovereign...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012846834
A sovereign default model in which the sovereign derives private benefits from public office and contests elections to stay in power is developed. The economy's growth process is modeled as a Markov switching regime, which is shown to be a better description of the data for our set of emerging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965739
theory. First, although the decision to abandon the doctrine of absolute immunity was a major legal and policy shift - one … relevance of legal enforcement in the sovereign debt markets. Finally, contract theory posits that sovereign bonds and other … suggests that contract theory should recognize that a wider range of forces may prompt standardized contracts to change …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014163470
This paper studies how distributional and electoral concerns shape sovereign default incentives within a quantitative model of sovereign debt with heterogeneous agents and non-linear income taxation. The small open economy is characterized by a two-party system in which the left-wing party has a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014248102
Few would dispute that sovereign defaults entail significant economic costs, including, most notably, important output losses. However, most of the evidence supporting this conventional wisdom, based on annual observations, suffers from serious measurement and identification problems. To address...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126235