type="main" xml:id="obes12052-abs-0001" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>In this article, we try to realize the best compromise between in-sample goodness of fit and out-of-sample predictability of sovereign defaults. To do this, we use a new regression-tree based approach that signals impending sovereign debt crises...</p>

This paper introduces a theoretical framework for collective decision making to describe fluctuations and transitions in financial markets. Investors are assumed to be boundedly rational, using a limited set of information including past price history and expectation on future dividends....

This paper employs a recent statistical algorithm (CRAGGING) in order to build an early warning model for banking crises in emerging markets. We perturb our data set many times and create “artificial” samples from which we estimated our model, so that, by construction, it is flexible enough...