This paper presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 de- rived from diffusion indices. We employ a … volatility across World War I, which is reversed after World War II. While we can generate evidence of postwar moderation … for World War II where they support alternative estimates of Kuznets (1952). -- U.S. business cycle ; volatility ; dynamic …

inflation moderation, and 13% of the growth moderation, while smaller oil shocks accounted for 11% of the inflation moderation … and 7% of the growth moderation. This notwithstanding, better monetary policy explains the bulk of the inflation …

There is no consensus about the causes of the reduction in business cycle volatility seen in many major economies over … stability has been fostered by improved monetary policy and by associated changes in the behaviour of inflation, which has … itself led to a reduction in the volatility of economic shocks. Assuming an absence of cataclysmic events, our projections …