Früher spielten Länderrisiken meist nur bei der Betrachtung von Entwicklungsländern eine Rolle. Doch hat die jüngere Vergangenheit gezeigt, dass dieses Thema auch für die entwickelten Staaten von Bedeutung ist. So stufte beispielsweise die Ratingagentur Moody's die Kreditwürdigkeit...

In der Konjunkturprognose des ifo Instituts spielt die Analyse und Vorhersage der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität nach Wirtschaftsbereichen eine wichtige Rolle. Grund hierfür ist die detaillierte Verfügbarkeit von Konjunkturindikatoren aus der ifo Konjunkturumfrage. Für Verwendungsaggregate wie...

This memo documents a nowcasting model for Danish GDP used during the economic crisis related to the outbreak of COVID-19. During this crisis, the model provided timely and more accurate nowcasts than a simple model. To improve the timeliness of nowcasts we make use of new high-frequency indicators.

This paper documents a new feature in Norges Bank's policy model NEMO, namely the ability to handle structural break points, i.e. shifts in one or more parameter values at a specific point in time. This property is introduced to enable the model to answer new policy-relevant questions, such as...

We investigate whether information from news articles could improve predictions of house price inflation at a short forecast horizon. The Covid-19 pandemic led to a shutdown of the Norwegian economy on March 12th 2020. Large economic fluctuations posed challenges for models used to forecast...

The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing dramatically worldwide, with several countries experiencing a second and worse wave. Therefore, the availability of reliable forecasts for the number of cases and deaths in the coming days is of fundamental importance. We propose a simple statistical...

A long tradition in macro finance studies the joint dynamics of aggregate stock returns and dividends using vector autoregressions (VARs), imposing the cross-equation restrictions implied by the Campbell-Shiller (CS) identity to sharpen inference. We take a Bayesian perspective and develop...