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). The variables that we predict are output growth and inflation, two representative variables from our set of indicators … find that the macroeconomic indicators (not including spreads) perform best when forecasting inflation in non-volatile time …
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Diffusion index models have received considerable attention from both theoreticians and empirical econometricians in recent years. One reason for this is that datasets with many variables are increasingly becoming available and being utilized for economic modelling, and another is that common...
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In economics, common factors are often assumed to underlie the co-movements of a set of macroeconomic variables. For this reason, many authors have used estimated factors in the construction of prediction models. In this paper, we begin by surveying the extant literature on diffusion indexes. We...
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We analyze real-time forecasts of US inflation over 1999Q3-2019Q4 and subsamples, investigating whether and how … and robustifies against bad forecasts; aggregating forecasts of inflation's components can improve performance compared to …
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