Using annual time series data on GDP per capita for Rwanda from 1960 to 2017, the study analyzes GDP per capita using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. The ADF tests showed that Rwandan GDP per capita data is I (1). Based on the AIC and the Theil's U, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 1, 1)...

We develop a small-scale dynamic factor model for the Swiss economy allowing for non-linearities by means of a two-state Markov-chain. The selection of an appropriate set of indicators utilizes a combinatorial algorithm. The model's forecasting performance is as good as that of peers with richer...

In this paper, we assess the predictive content of latent economic policy uncertainty and data surprises factors for forecasting and nowcasting GDP using factor-type econometric models. Our analysis focuses on five emerging market economies, including Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, and...

This paper investigates the trade-off between timeliness and quality in nowcasting practices. This trade-off arises when the frequency of the variable to be nowcast, such as GDP, is quarterly, while that of the underlying panel data is monthly; and the latter contains both survey and...

This paper investigates the informational content of regular revisions to real GDP growth and its components. We perform a real-time forecasting exercise for the advance estimate of real GDP growth using dynamic regression models that include revisions to GDP and its components. Echoing other...

Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries...

This paper provides a framework for the early assessment of current U.S. nominal GDP growth, which has been considered a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed using the exact amount of information that policy-makers have available at the time predictions are made....

Cieslak and Povala (2011) discovered that conditioning levels of interest rates on trend inflation helps to forecast bond returns. This note explores that theme using other measures of trend including trend GDP growth. I find that a model free de-trending of rates by trend GDP performs as well...