Bell curve of product life cycle has not prepared firms to forecast free fall of product sales, increasingly common phenomena. Technology forecasting techniques pioneered as military games have come to corporate board room. Managers need tools to learn what a competitor will do, also known as...

We present an explicit framework for horizon based investing that results in superior expected risk adjusted returns and lower turnover. The framework includes a means of empirically determining an expected horizon and its confidence intervals, an alpha model structure linking horizon with the...