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This paper explores the role of private credit variables as early warning indicators (EWIs) of banking crises in context of emerging economies. The performance is evaluated by using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC) on long series on credit to the...
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Over the past two decades, Germany experienced several periods of banking system instability rather than full-blown banking system crises. In this paper we introduce a continuous and forward-looking stability indicator for the banking system based on information on all financial institutions in...
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We measure bank vulnerability in emerging markets using the distance-to-default, a risk-neutral indicator based on … 38 banks in 14 emerging market countries. Results show it can predict a bank''s credit deterioration up to nine months in … advance. The distance-to-default, hence, may prove useful for bank monitoring purposes …
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