The hypothesis that interest rate differentials are unbiased predictors of future exchange rate movements has been almost universally rejected in empirical studies. In contrast to previous studies, which have used short-horizon data, we test this hypothesis using interest rates on...

This paper compares the hypothetical performance of various monetary policy rules with that of the discretionary policies actually pursued in Japan over the 1986-91 period. The results suggest that simple rules based on targeting growth in either the money supply, nominal income, or prices would...

This paper examines the evidence on asymmetries in the effects of activity on inflation. Data for the G-7 countries are found to strongly support the view that the inflation-activity relationship is nonlinear, with high levels of activity raising inflation by more than low levels decrease it. In...

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the impact of NAFTA on growth and business cycles in Mexico. The effect of the agreement in spurring a dramatic increase in trade and financial flows between Mexico and its NAFTA partners, and its impact on Mexican economic growth and business...

This paper focuses on the output costs of disinflation. A model of inflation with both forward and backward elements seems to characterize reality. Such an inflation model is estimated using data for industrial countries, and the output costs of a disinflation path are calculated, first...

This paper describes a small macroeconomic model based on a representative industrial-country block of MULTIMOD, the IMF’s multi-country simulation model. REPMOD is designed to provide a more flexible and accessible tool for analysis by individual country desks than the full version of...

This study examines external and domestic influences on Latin America’s economic performance over the past decade and a half. It notes that over the past few years, macroeconomic policies have strengthened and structural reforms have been implemented. Together with a favorable external...

The weakness of the euro has been surprising given the widely-held expectation that it would be a strong currency. This paper critically examines explanations for the slide in the euro, finding that many are questionable on conceptual or empirical grounds. Two explanations are instead advanced...

The medium-term predictability of exchange rate movements is examined using three models of fundamentals: purchasing power parity, the monetary model, and uncovered interest parity. While the first two approaches yield favorable in-sample results, these largely reflect finite-sample estimation...