We use a general-equilibrium model to explain the rise in global trade and payments imbalances since the mid-1990s, and then to construct adjustment paths to a steady state. Assuming that the shocks giving rise to the imbalances do not suddenly reverse, simulated movements in the U.S. trade...

The focus of this analysis is on the output costs of disinflation. A model of inflation with both forward and backward elements seems to characterize reality. Such an inflation model is estimated using data for industrial countries, and the output costs of a disinflation path are calculated,...

Data for the G-7 countries strongly support the view that economic activity has a nonlinear effect on inflation, with high levels of activity raising inflation by more than low levels decrease it. In the face of such asymmetries, the average level of output in an economy subject to demand shocks...

Uncovered interest parity (UIP) has been almost universally rejected in studies of exchange rate movements. In contrast to previous studies, which have used short-horizon data, we test UIP using interest rates on longer-maturity bonds for the Group of Seven countries. These long-horizon...

Este estudio examina las influencias externas e internas sobre el desempeño económico de América Latina durante los últimos 15 años. Se destaca que en los últimos años se han fortalecido las políticas macroeconómicas y se han implementado reformas estructurales. Conjugadas con un...