This paper focuses on the output costs of disinflation. A model of inflation with both forward and backward elements seems to characterize reality. Such an inflation model is estimated using data for industrial countries, and the output costs of a disinflation path are calculated, first...

This paper describes a small macroeconomic model based on a representative industrial-country block of MULTIMOD, the IMF’s multi-country simulation model. REPMOD is designed to provide a more flexible and accessible tool for analysis by individual country desks than the full version of...

The focus of this analysis is on the output costs of disinflation. A model of inflation with both forward and backward elements seems to characterize reality. Such an inflation model is estimated using data for industrial countries, and the output costs of a disinflation path are calculated,...

Data for the G-7 countries strongly support the view that economic activity has a nonlinear effect on inflation, with high levels of activity raising inflation by more than low levels decrease it. In the face of such asymmetries, the average level of output in an economy subject to demand shocks...

Uncovered interest parity (UIP) has been almost universally rejected in studies of exchange rate movements. In contrast to previous studies, which have used short-horizon data, we test UIP using interest rates on longer-maturity bonds for the Group of Seven countries. These long-horizon...

The need for a deeper understanding of the operation of Hong Kong's currency board arrangements was highlighted during the Asian financial crisis in 1998. A model-based approach built on hypothetical stochastic simulations would be useful for this purpose. This paper develops a new procedure of...

The unbiasedness hypothesis - the joint hypothesis of uncovered interest parity (UIP) and rational expectations - has been almost universally rejected in studies of exchange rate movements. In contrast to previous studies, which have used short-horizon data, we test this hypothesis using...

We use a general-equilibrium model to explain the rise in global trade and payments imbalances since the mid-1990s, and then to construct adjustment paths to a steady state. Assuming that the shocks giving rise to the imbalances do not suddenly reverse, simulated movements in the U.S. trade...

This volume, by Bijan B. Aghevli, Tamim Bayoumi, and Guy Meredith, is based on a seminar on structural change in Japan held in early 1997 and chaired by the IMF's First Deputy Managing Director, Stanley Fischer. Discussion of teh day-to-day management of the standard levers of fiscal and...

The economic effects of German unification are first discussed in the context of a global saving/investment model. Next, simulations of MULTIMOD are presented, suggesting for the FRG an initial increase in long-term real interest rates equal to 3/4 of a percentage point, increased output, a...