How to quantify estimation risk is important in portfolio selection. For this purpose we derive the flexible shrinkage estimator for the optimal portfolio weights, which allows dynamic adjustments of model structure. Our estimator is based on grouping the assets in order to capture...

This paper proposes a multivariate shrinkage estimator for the optimal portfolio weights. The estimated classical Markowitz weights are shrunk to the deterministic target portfolio weights. Assuming log asset returns to be i.i.d. Gaussian, explicit solutions are derived for the optimal shrinkage...

In this paper we model the dynamics of 100 years long monthly price series of eight non-ferrous and precious metals. Applying the state space framework we impose and identify two common factors related to non-ferrous and precious metals, respectively, which exhibit quite distinct autoregressive...

The dates of U.S. business cycle are reported by NBER with a considerable delay, so an early notion of turning points is of particular interest. This paper proposes a novel sequential approach designed for timely signaling these turning points. A directional cumulated sum decision rule is...

We consider the problem of ex-ante forecasting conditional correlation patterns using ultra high frequency data. Flexible semiparametric predictors referring to the class of dynamic panel and dynamic factor models are adopted for daily forecasts. The parsimonious set up of our approach allows to...

Using a novel three-phase model based upon a conditional autoregressive Wishart (CAW) framework for the realized (co)variances of the US Dow Jones and the German stock index DAX, we analyze intra-daily volatility spillovers between the US and German stock markets. The proposed model explicitly...