This paper studies the link between individual investors' portfolio diversification levels and various personal traits that proxy informational advantages and overconfidence. The analysis is based on objective data from the largest Turkish brokerage house tracking 59,951 individual investors'...

We make use of quantile regression theory to obtain a combination of individual potentially-biased VaR forecasts that is optimal because it meets by construction ex post the correct out-of-sample conditional coverage criterion. This enables a Wald-type conditional quantile forecast encompassing...

The paper examines the role of non-normality risks in explaining the momentum puzzle of equity returns. It shows that momentum profits are not normally distributed and, relatedly, that the momentum profitability is partly a compensation for systematic negative skewness risk in line with market...

We employ a two-regime, nonlinear model and more than a century of data to investigate the time series behavior of the Samp;P Composite price-dividends and price-earnings ratios. On average, the ratios display continuation fuelled by investor sentiment in bull markets but they adjust toward...

This paper sheds light on US stock price deviations from fundamentals by analyzing the time-series dynamics of post-1870 Samp;P valuation ratios. It employs a non-linear, two-regime framework that allows for different behavior over phases of the stock market cycle. Persistence in the ratios...

This paper explores the long run behaviour and short run dynamics of quarterly UK real interest rates, 1950-1999, in a threshold autoregressive framework. Using bootstrap LR extensions of the Enders and Granger (1998) threshold unit root and asymmetry tests, it finds support for sign and...

This article studies the relation between the skewness of commodity futures returns and expected returns. A trading strategy that takes long positions in commodity futures with the most negative skew and shorts those with the most positive skew generates significant excess returns that remain...

This paper shows that commodity portfolios that capture the backwardation and contango phases exhibit in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power for the first two moments of the distribution of long-horizon aggregate equity market returns, and for the business cycle. It also demonstrates that...

The increasing availability of intraday financial data has led to improvements in daily volatility forecasting through long-memory models of realized volatility. This paper demonstrates the merit of the non-parametric Nearest Neighbor (NN) approach for S&P 100 realized variance forecasting. A...

This article investigates the relationship between expected returns and past idiosyncratic volatility in commodity futures markets. Measuring the idiosyncratic volatility of 27 commodity futures contracts with traditional pricing models that fail to account for backwardation and contango leads...