This paper investigates the information content of the ex post overnight return for one-day-ahead equity Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. To do so, we deploy a univariate VaR modeling approach that constructs the forecast at market open and, accordingly, exploits the available overnight...

This paper sheds light on US stock price deviations from fundamentals by analyzing the time-series dynamics of post-1870 Samp;P valuation ratios. It employs a non-linear, two-regime framework that allows for different behavior over phases of the stock market cycle. Persistence in the ratios...

The paper examines the role of non-normality risks in explaining the momentum puzzle of equity returns. It shows that momentum profits are not normally distributed and, relatedly, that the momentum profitability is partly a compensation for systematic negative skewness risk in line with market...

This paper investigates the short-term behaviour of closed-end funds following large price shocks for a panel of 63 UK-traded funds. Our findings suggest that for the eight market-wide shocks, significant overreaction occurs. The level of overreaction is unrelated to the size of the funds. Both...

We divide the time series of aggregate valuation into bull and bear market phases to test for momentum and reversal, respectively. Our results are consistent with price-earnings and price-dividends displaying continuation by drifting upwards in bull markets irrespective of fundamentals. Such...

The portfolio-rebalancing theory of Hau and Rey (2006) yields the uncovered equity parity (UEP) prediction that local-currency equity return appreciation is offset by currency depreciation. Vector autoregressive model estimation and tests for eight Asian emerging markets using daily data reveal...

The paper provides a comprehensive appraisal of style-integration methods in equity index, fixed income, currency, and commodity futures markets. We confront the naïve equal-weight integration (EWI) method with a host of ‘sophisticated' style-integrations that derive the style exposures using...

This paper examines the quarter-ahead out-of-sample predictability of Brazil, Mexico, the Philippines and Turkey credit spreads before and after the Lehman Brothers' default. A model based on the country-specific credit spread curve factors predicts no better than the random walk and slope...

We examine the commodity futures pricing role of active attention to weather, disease, geopolitical or economic threats or “hazard fear” as proxied by the volume of internet searches by 149 query terms. A long-short portfolio strategy that sorts the cross-section of commodity futures...

This paper documents a negative cross-transmission of bank-idiosyncratic credit risk events to the equity value of peers comprising other banks, insurance and real estate firms inter alia. Large jumps in the idiosyncratic component of bank CDS spreads significantly reduce the equity value of...