A large set of macroeconomic variables have been suggested as equity risk premium predictors in the literature. This paper proposes a forecasting approach for the equity risk premium with two novel features. First, individual month-ahead forecasts are obtained from parsimonious threshold...

We read all newspaper articles to measure the pre-IPO media tone for 1,068 Chinese book-built IPOs issued from 2005–2013. We document significant and robust evidence that media tone is related to high IPO first-day returns and low long-run abnormal returns. One positive newspaper article can...

We examine the commodity futures pricing role of active attention to weather, disease, geopolitical or economic threats or “hazard fear” as proxied by the volume of internet searches by 149 query terms. A long-short portfolio strategy that sorts the cross-section of commodity futures...

This paper examines the combined role of momentum and term structure signals for the design of profitable trading strategies in commodity futures markets. With significant annualized alphas of 10.14% and 12.66% respectively, the momentum and term structure strategies appear profitable when...

Using threshold autoregressive specifications, this paper extends the Enders and Granger (1998) framework for parametric tests of level asymmetry. In particular it develops bootstrap likelihood ratio statistics to test the symmetry null against sign and amplitude asymmetries or a combination of...

This article compares traditional hedging that aims at covering spot price risk and selective hedging that also speculates by forecasting futures price changes. The selective hedges we consider use different forecasts that range from the historical average return to (V)AR model projections,...

Monte Carlo simulations are used to explore the small sample properties of a mean group and two pooled panel estimators of a regression coefficient when the regressor is I(1). We compare and contrast the effect of I(0) and I(1) errors and homogeneous and heterogeneous coefficients in a design...

The base currency effect in the PPP literature refers to the stylised fact that tests on real exchange rates denominated in German marks are more likely to support mean reversion than analogous tests on US dollar rates. Using a panel of 19 OECD currencies and monthly data, 1973-97, three panel...