This paper investigates whether the assumption of Brownian motion often used to describe commodity price movements is satisfied. Using historical data from 17 commodity futures contracts specific tests of fractional and ordinary Brownian motion are conducted. The analyses are conducted under the...

This paper proposes that the common finding that land prices are systematically higher than their fundamental value as measured by the present value of future cash might be due to real options arising from uncertainty in cash flows. The paper posits a model in which the seller has a real option...

This paper provides an understanding of how the export credit worthiness of an importing country affects export sales of agricultural and other manufactured products and how export credit guarantees or insurance can mitigate risks of non-payment. A theoretical model is developed. It shows how...

This paper presents a model and framework for pricing degree-day weather derivatives when the weather variable is a non-traded asset. Using daily weather data from 1840-1996 it is shown that a degree-day weather index exhibits stable volatility and satisfies the random walk hypothesis. The paper...

This paper presents a model and framework for pricing degree-day weather derivatives when the weather variable is a non-traded asset. The paper compares the options prices from the recommended model and compares it to a typical insurance-type model.

Both prices and the volatility of storable agricultural commodity futures contracts have been rising since 2005 and particularly since 2007. This paper aims to answer two principal questions: (i) How has the behavior of these futures prices over time and across maturities changed with the rise...

This paper investigates whether the assumption of Brownian motion often used to describe commodity price movements is satisfied. Using historical data from 17 commodity futures contracts specific tests of fractional and ordinary Brownian motion are conducted. The analyses are conducted under the...

The purpose of this paper is to develop a general approach to valuing commodity-linked bonds (CLBs) based on the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) framework. The model deals with four dimensions of uncertainty: prices of the underlying commodity, the value of firm that issues bonds, interest rates, and...

This paper measures the economic impacts of climate change on China's grain production by using provincial time series data over a 32-year period. The panel data model and time series region model with/without adaptation are applied at the same time to assess the effectiveness of a common...

Land Use Rights (LURs) in China affect farmers’ productivity through investment incentives and the way land is allocated across households. LURs have implication and trade-offs between equity and growth. This paper examines how Chinese farmers might respond if the Chinese government made it...