Chapter 9 of Geo-Economics: The Interplay between Geopolitics, Economics, and Investments focuses on one of the most pressing global challenges for politics and humankind alike: climate change. Climate change is already triggering more intense and more frequent extreme weather events—cyclones,...

We test the reliability of the Cyclically Adjusted PE (CAPE) or Shiller PE as a forecasting and valuation tool for 35 countries including emerging markets. We find that the Shiller-PE is a reliable long-term valuation indicator for developed and emerging markets and we use the indicator to...

The financial crisis of 2008 cut deeply into the retirement savings of most retirees and those who are soon to retire. Add to this the clear trends of longer life expectancies and more active retirements and it becomes clear that portfolios must be structured to minimize the risk of asset...

Traditional mean variance optimization assumes that future returns and covariances of all the assets in the universe are known exactly. In practice, these input parameters are subject to estimation errors that may render the output of the optimization algorithm essentially useless. Here we...

We update our analysis of expected returns for equity markets around the world. Based on the current Shiller-PE ratios of 38 developed and emerging equity markets around the world, our findings indicate that expected real returns are still positive for the coming five to ten years. European...

Chapter 8 of Geo-Economics: The Interplay between Geopolitics, Economics, and Investments focuses on an emerging form of resource competition. As renewable energy is becoming an increasingly important part of our energy supply, access to the minerals used in batteries and solar cells, as well as...

Chapter 7 of Geo-Economics: The Interplay between Geopolitics, Economics, and Investments focuses on globally connected economies, the economic damage caused by successful cyber attacks, and the potential impact of a large-scale cyber attack. Could a successful cyber attack cause a prolonged...

Chapter 6 of Geo-Economics: The Interplay between Geopolitics, Economics, and Investments focuses on the economic and political rivalry between the United States and China and on how the trade war and the geo-economic competition between China and the rich countries of the West might develop....

Today’s investors need to understand geopolitical trends as a main driving force of markets. This book provides just that: an understanding of the interplay between geopolitics and economics, and of the impact of that dynamic on financial markets.To me, geo-economics is the study of how...