This study examines the evolution of econometric research in business cycle analysis during the 1960-90 period. It shows how the research was dominated by an assimilation of the tradition of NBER business cycle analysis by the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission approach, catalysed by time-series...

Non-linear relationships are common in economic theory, and such relationships are also frequently tested empirically. We argue that the usual test of non-linear relationships is flawed, and derive the appropriate test for a U shaped relationship. Our test gives the exact necessary and...

This paper is prepared for the forthcoming publication of Frisch's 1930 Yale lecture notes, A Dynamic Approach to Economic Theory: The Yale Lectures of Ragnar Frisch (details at: http://www.routledgeeconomics.com/books/A-Dynamic-Approach-to-Economic-Theory-isbn9780415564090). As the lecture...

The article presents an exchange of letters between Jakob Marschak and Trygve Haavelmo in May-July 1943. Marschak had from the beginning of 1943 become the research director of Cowles Commission at the University of Chicago. Trygve Haavelmo, who at the time worked for the Norwegian Shipping and...

Regression methods are commonly used in competition lawsuits for, e.g., determining overcharges in pricefixing cases. Technical evaluations of these methods' pros and cons are not necessarily intuitive. Appraisals that are based on case studies are descriptive but need not be universally valid....

This paper looks at the interrelationship between trade in goods and asset holdings, as brought forward by some contributions to the empirical literature in international economics. These contributions argue that single-equation gravity models suffer from an endogeneity bias, culminating in a...

We consider the identification of a Markov process {Wt, Xt*} for t=1,2,...,T when only {Wt} for t=1, 2,..,T is observed. In structural dynamic models, Wt denotes the sequence of choice variables and observed state variables of an optimizing agent, while Xt* denotes the sequence of serially...

The cumulants of the quadratic forms associated to the so-called spatial design matrices are often needed for inference in the context of isotropic processes on uniform grids. Unfortunately, because the eigenvalues of the matrices involved are generally unknown, the computation of the cumulants...

We develop methods for testing the hypothesis that an econometric model is underidentified and inferring the nature of the failed identification. By adopting a generalizedmethod of moments perspective, we feature directly the structural relations and we allow for nonlinearity in the econometric...

Many empirical questions in economics and other social sciences depend on causal effects of programs or policies. In the last two decades much research has been done on the econometric and statistical analysis of the effects of such programs or treatments. This recent theoretical literature has...