basis of in-sample and out-of-sample forecast it can be concluded that the model has sufficient predictive powers and the … findings are well in line with those of other studies. Further, in this study, the main focus is to forecast the monthly …

-time forecasts of the real price of oil can be more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up to one year. In some cases … prices, forecasts based on AR and ARMA models, and the no-change forecast. In addition, these VAR models have consistently … forecasters to interpret their oil price forecast in light of economic models and to evaluate its sensitivity to alternative …