We provide a new method to derive the state price density per unit probabilitybased on option prices and GARCH model. We derive the risk neutraldistribution using the result in Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) and thehistorical density adapting the GARCH model of Barone-Adesi, Engle, andMancini...

Predicting default probabilities is important for firms and banks to operate successfully and to estimate their specific risks. There are many reasons to use nonlinear techniques for predicting bankruptcy from financial ratios. Here we propose the so called Support Vector Machine (SVM) to...

Analyse dessen, was eigentlich nie passieren dürfte, was jedoch ständig geschieht und unser Leben gewaltig beeinflusst, was mithilfe statistischer Modelle permanent aus unserem Denken ausgeblendet wird. (Joachim Weigelt)