We consider the problem of estimating the conditional quantile of a time series at time t given observations of the same and perhaps other time series available at time t - 1. We discuss sieve estimates which are a nonparametric versions of the Koenker-Bassett regression quantiles and do not...

The ratio bias - according to which individuals prefer to bet on probabilities expressed as a ratio of large numbers to normatively equivalent or superior probabilities expressed as a ratio of small numbers - has recently gained momentum, with researchers especially in health economics...