Two of the puzzling macroeconomic phenomena of the 1970s have been the persistent stagnation in Europe, and the disagreement between the U.S. and Europe on the feasibility of recovery by demand expansion. This paper develops the hypothesis that the source of both the stagnation and the policy...

This paper presents a macro simulation model to quantify the effects of stabilisation packages on the distribution of income and wealth. It is a macro-micro model since it combines macroeconomic aspects with the microeconomic optimising behaviour characteristic of computable general equilibrium...

This paper develops the basis for monetary and exchange rate coordination in Asia as part of a package of monetary integration that could support growth and poverty reduction. This could be achieved directly through coordinated exchange rate stabilization, and indirectly through the implications...

This paper presents techniques for modelling and estimating the behavior of financial market price or return differentials that follow non-linear regime-switching behaviour. The methodology to be used here is estimation of variants of threshold autoregression (TAR) models. In the basic model the...

A framework is developed for macroeconomic policy analysis in four countries of Central Europe (CE) in transition to EU membership (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia). A Multi-Annual Fiscal Adjustment Strategy (MAFAS) and a Pre-Pegging Exchange Rate Regime (PPERR) appropriate for...

This paper provides a framework for analyzing the effects of symmetric and asymmetric changes in information about risk on equilibrium real interest rate spreads across countries. Following the literature on parameter uncertainty, improvements in information are modeled as reductions in...

This paper examines the relationships between movements in primary commodity prices and changes in inflation in the large industrial countries. It begins by developing a two-country model in order to examine the theoretical effects of monetary, fiscal, and supply-side disturbances on commodity...

This paper presents a structural macro simulation model to quantify the effects of alternative stabilization packages on the distribution of income and wealth. The model combines the explicit microeconomic optimizing behavior characteristic of computable general equilibrium models with asset...

This paper investigates the importance of markup behavior in Japanese manufacturing. According to the evidence presented, Japanese firms have varied the markups of prices over marginal costs in order to limit the effects of exchange rate changes on output. This behavior is quite different from...

This paper studies the value of broad commodity price indexes as predictors of consumer price inflation in the G-7 industrial countries. After an introduction, the paper discusses the theoretical relationship between commodity and consumer prices and the conditions under which, in general, one...