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Rational speculation in foreign exchange trading is often assumed to dampen exchange rate fluctuations by bringing the market back to fundamentals. Nevertheless, information congestion provides incentives for traders to follow positive feedback strategies which result in persistent and volatile...
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The rational expectations efficient market model of the exchange rate has failed empirically. In this paper we develop a model of the exchange rate in which agents use simple forecasting rules. Based on an ex post evaluation of the relative profitability of these rules they decide whether to...
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We develop a parsimonious model of bubbles based on the assumption of imprecisely known market depth. In a speculative … possibility of bubbles depending on the risk-free rate, uncertainty about market depth, and traders’ degree of leverage. This … allows us to discuss several policy measures. Bubbles always reduce aggregate welfare. Among others, certain monetary policy …
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