Seit 1970 hat die Staatsverschuldung in Deutschland dramatisch zugenommen. Weder die Vorkehrungen zur Begrenzung der Staatsverschuldung im Grundgesetz noch der Europäische Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspakt haben den Anstieg der Verschuldung eindämmen können. Derzeit führt der konjunkturelle...

Nachfolgend soll kurz die demographische Entwicklung in Mecklenburg- Vorpommern skizziert werden, soweit sie sich derzeit absehen lässt, sowie die prognostizierte Entwicklung der Studierendenzahlen. Danach sollen die daraus von politischer Seite gezogenen Schlüsse vorgestellt werden, bevor die...

Im vorliegenden Diskussions-Papier werden die externen Luftverschmutzungskosten des motorisierten Individualverkehrs (MIV) für verschiedene Technologien, Fahrsituationen und alle Regionen in Deutschland berechnet. Dabei ist das Ziel der Untersuchung, die Notwendigkeit einer fahrtortsbezogenen...

Despite powerful advances in yield curve modeling in the last twenty years, comparatively little attention has been paid to the key practical problem of forecasting the yield curve. In this paper we do so. We use neither the no-arbitrage approach, which focuses on accurately fitting the cross...

This paper employs a multi-country large scale Overlapping Generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk to quantify the impact of the demographic transition towards an older population in industrialized countries on world-wide rates of return, international capital...

Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multi-country, multi-cultural, and multi-lingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the ECB? Using a...

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using...

Multi-step-ahead forecasts of forecast uncertainty in practice are often based on the horizon-specific sample means of recent squared forecast errors, where the number of available past forecast errors decreases one-to-one with the forecast horizon. In this paper, the efficiency gains from the...

We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings seem to indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal...