Eight centuries ago, Thomas Aquinas clearly differentiated between probability and uncertainty in decision making. He … from the A Treatise on Probability and confidence from Keynes’s General Theory, as well as Adam Smith’s views on …’s weight of the evidence concept in Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability and confidence concept from Keynes’s General Theory …

.unstatistik.de) reagiert. Anhand haarsträubender Beispiele aus dem Reich der Statistik erklären sie, wie wir Humbug durchschauen, zwischen …

–weight of the evidence approach to decision making from the A Treatise on Probability, that Keynes integrated into the General … Theory by way of his definition of uncertainty on p.148 in chapter 12 of the General Theory, with the “Heuristics and Biases … (errors)” approach of Kahneman and Tversky. Uncertainty was defined in the General Theory as an inverse function of the weight …