The demand pressures associated with the large terms-of-trade gains are reflected in a fast real appreciation of the ruble, although more of this has come through nominal appreciation during the last year. The risks to the outlook are evenly balanced and depend mostly on oil price developments....

The economic outlook remains clouded by regional and domestic security concerns. Real GDP growth and inflation were broadly in line with program projections in 2001–02. The balance of payments position unproved faster than expected. The budget deficit target for 2001–02 (as set during the...