We propose a method to identify the anticipated components of macroeconomic shocks in a structural VAR. We include empirical forecasts about each time series in the VAR. This introduces enough linear restrictions to identify each structural shock and to further decompose each one into "news" and...

Germany's macroprudential policy toolkit is well-developed, but its key missing piece is a set of instruments related to a borrower's income. In addition, existing powers to adopt LTV limits have not yet been deployed. Against this background, this paper advances the discussion of borrower-based...

The surge in energy prices since Russia's invasion of Ukraine has reduced the energy-intensive sector's production in Germany, although the non-energy intensive sector's production has held up thanks in part to firms' efforts to improve energy efficiency. Energy prices are expected to remain...

This Selected Issues paper highlights impact of high-energy prices on Germany's potential output. The surge in energy prices since Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to a contraction in the energy-intensive sector's production, while the nonenergy intensive sector's industrial production has...

This 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that the German economy has demonstrated resilience following the shut-off of Russian gas supply in the year 2022. The energy shock and tightening financial conditions are expected to keep annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth slightly negative in...