This paper presents and assessess a procedure to evaluate dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium macroeconomic models when agents in the economy use an information set superior to that used by researchers.

Measuring the effects of discretionary fiscal policy is both difficult and controversial, as some explicit or implicit identifying assumptions need to be made to isolate exogenous and unanticipated changes in taxes and government spending. Studies based on structural vector autoregressions...

This paper analyzes the important time variation in U.S. aggregate portfolio allocations. To do so, we first use flexible descriptions of preferences and investment opportunities to derive optimal decision rules that nest tactical, myopic, and strategic portfolio allocations. We then compare...

This paper gauges the causal relationship between external and budget deficits by using Blanchard's overlapping generations model. This model sests the twin deficits hypothesis (i.e. there is a positive relationship between the deficits) and the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (i.e. there is no...

This paper investigates the testable restrictions on the time-series behavior of equity premia implied by a representative agent model whose state- and time-non separable preferences are subject to taste shocks. The model nests state- and time-separable preferences with and without taste shocks...

This paper analyzes the important time variation in U.S. aggregate portfolio allocations. To do so, we first use flexible descriptions of preferences and investment opportunities to derive optimal decision rules that nest tactical, myopic, and strategic portofolio allocations. We then compare...

We propose an empirical procedure, which exploits the conditional heteroscedasticity of fundamental disturbances, to test the targeting and orthogonality restrictions imposed in the recent VAR literature to identify monetary policy shocks. Based on U.S. monthly data for the post-1982 period, we...

In contrast to earlier work, we study the relation between the current account and interest rate differentials. To do so, we document the relation for international data. We then interpret this relation from a two-country, dynamic, general equilibrium environment. We finally confront the...

This letter presents and assesses a procedure to generate recursive measures of aggregate total wealth and portfolio return. Conceptually, the procedure is more flexible than the classical replacement cost and present value methods. Empirically, the procedure yields recursive measures that...