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We examine whether finance professionals deviate from Bayes’ theorem on the processing of nondiagnostic information when forecasting quarterly earnings. Using field data from sell-side financial analysts and employing a regression discontinuity design, we find that analysts whose forecasts...
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finance, it is usually modeled as a direct consequence of misperceiving signal reliability. This bias is typically dubbed … on the well-established "miscalibration" bias. We find no gender differences in overconfidence for our measures except … bias …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008669956
We report the results of an experiment on selective exposure to information. A decision maker interested in learning … source even when prior beliefs are strongly unbalanced and this source is less informative. Our experiment suggests that base …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014383694
This experiment explores whether individuals know that other people are biased. We confirm that overestimation of … subjects' inability to distinguish between random mistakes and a real bias. Second, we show how the relation between a subject …. Third, we identify a self-serving bias when comparing how a subject evaluates his own and other people's biases. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264906
We use a range of dictator game experiments to investigate whether people avoid information altruistically. After learning about a product with positive externalities, a consumer may avoid learning the cost of the product so that she does not hesitate to act altruistically. We find that although...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011980324
their content effectively to update their beliefs. To answer these questions, I set up an online experiment informed by a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014416234
between different views. Overall, society always exhibits an in-group bias - the average person sees his group relative to … settings. Third, the agent's beliefs are subject to "bias substitution," whereby forces that decrease his bias regarding one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014578270
experiment exploits the potential of the increasingly popular BDM elicitation procedure adopted to lotteries to distort beliefs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904062
. We propose a controlled online experiment that allows to manipulate belief biases and the communication environment. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014467686