Exponential smoothing models are an important prediction tool in macroeconomics, finance and business. This paper presents the analytical forecasting properties of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model in the multiple source of error framework. The random coefficient state-space...

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic...